Alternative Energy Transition Model

Australian Agriculture, Fisheries and Forestry Sector

The following models are illustrative and based on current and estimated supply and consumption data for the Australian AFF sector.

The 2035 PJ numbers are modelled as actual “as-consumed” estimates for 2035 — the forecast builds in:

Activity growth + 5 % increase in physical output across major AFF commodities (cropped-area growth, more irrigated hectares, slightly heavier machinery, moderate expansion of protected horticulture).

Technical efficiency gains – ≈ 5 % reduction in energy-intensity (kWh / t, L / ML pumped, MJ / t-grain dried) from: higher-efficiency pumps, variable speed drive retrofits, newer engine platforms, smarter routing/logistics and modest electrification efficiency bonuses.

Because the growth and efficiency roughly offset, total useful energy drops from ~112 PJ (2024) to ~105 PJ (2035), even though the mix changes dramatically.